The withdrawal today of Harriet Miers from nomination to the Supreme Court comes as something of a surprise but not really as a shock. I expected Bush and Miers to stick it out until the end. But maybe the end was clear enough that it was time to just walk away.

I have one last crackpot theory about the nomination that I would like to share. It's about why President Bush thought he could get away with this nomination.

When he took office for his second term, Bush made it known that he had plenty of political capital and he intended to spend it. The problem is I don't think he understands what that capital will buy him when it comes to the SCOTUS. And what it won't

What that capital will buy him is complete and unflinching support for the sort of nominee he promised, one in the mold of Scalia or Thomas. In his mind, he may have done that with the Miers nomination. Based on his personal knowledge of her he may see that nomination as fulfilling his promise. The truth is, we will never know. Where he ran into trouble with his conservative base is that to them his promise on nominations meant something entirely different.

It didn't mean appoint someone who is a judicial cipher to the rest of the world, even if you know personally that she is more of Scalia than Scalia. For the people who have fought long and hard to put the country in a position where a conservative president is nominating justices for the advice and consent of a GOP senate this nomination is almost more about the nomination than the nominee. Yes it matters to them to have a judicial conservative nominated to the court, but the fight to get that person there matters just as much and perhaps even a little more.

In an ironic way this parallels some of the recent commentary about Miers that it wasn't as important that she voted right but why she voted how she did. That it wasn't the outcomes but the process and the reasoning.

So where did Bush go wrong? He went wrong trying to spend his political capital on his base. He stood there with that check in his hand and said to his base "I'm here to cash in." The problem for Bush was that the base wasn't for sale. Conservatives had certain ideas an principals when it came to the court and they weren't going to sell those out for Bush's promise of "trust me." His political capital was all on his Amex card. And the base wasn't taking American Express.

Now the president has another chance. If he gives the base the kind of nominee and nomination battle they want, he will find that his political capital will get the job done. The strength of support behind such a nominee, and the willingness of those supporters to fight no matter what the Democrats throw at them.

Miers could have turned out to be the greatest originalist in the history of the court but her nomination was a political mistake. It was capital misspent.

Now he has another chance to do it right. Let's hope he does.

Technorati Tags: hattiet miers, miers, Politics, George Bush, Republicans, Supreme Court

Posted by: Stephen Macklin at 02:20 PM | Comments (2) | Add Comment