There are two things one can do at the end of the year. You can make list of the Ten Best or Ten Worst of this or that, or you can try to predict what is going to happen in the year to come. I haven't ruled out a list or two, but for now I'm going prognosticate.

APPLE: God of all things Apple, Steve Jobs, is slated to give the keynote address at the MacWorld Expo in San Francisco Tuesday, January 15, 9:00 AM - 10:30 AM. Jobs doesn't do one of these things without making some sort of product announcement. As usual the Apple rumor mill has been grinding away overtime. Mainstream media reporting is all over the fact that Apple will be launching movie rentals via iTunes. But this is not new news. Hackers reported seeing code to support rentals in recent iTunes updates for a couple of months.

There has been a great deal of speculation about the possibility of an ultra-portable or tablet Mac, but I don't think there will be anything that "big." Most of what Jobs will announce will be feature growth in Leopard with the release of 10.5.2 and mostly on iPhone. Look for some sort of GPS functionality tied into Google Maps, 3G compatibility, and probably more wireless purchase deals like the one they have with Starbucks. Apple has also promised a developer environment for the iPone so all those hacked applications can go legit, and there will probably be a bunch more. But it will still require a two year contract with AT&T so I really don't care.

Apple will continue to grow both in revenues and market share and I will continue to rue the day I decided not to invest a minor windfall in Apple stock when it was in the low $20s.

POLITICS: This is a risky one to call, but here it goes.

Iowa - GOP: Romney wins the caucuses. The Huckabubble is thoroughly burst when he finishes a disappointing fourth.  Huckabee peaked too soon and people had too much time to take too good a look at him. The vast majority of his support will shift to Thompson who will finish a strong second. McCain will finish a respectable third. Rudy will manage to beat Duncan Hunter and Ron Paul, but that's not saying much.

Iowa - Democrats: Obama wins by a close but comfortable margin. His grace in victory is matched by the degree to which Mrs. Clinton does not lose well. There will be no scream - at least not in public - but her attempts to pass off the loss as not that significant will seem hollow and desperate. (Rather like the candidate herself) The loss will leave her off balance going into New Hampshire and it will not be pretty.

New Hampshire -  GOP Coming off his strong finish in Iowa, Thompson finishes a very close second to McCain. Romney manages to hold on to third, but the Free State crowd catapults Ron Paul to fourth place ahead of Rudy. That will be the pinnacle of his campaign success. Duncan Hunter withdraws from the campaign.

New Hampshire - Democrats: Mrs. Clinton does not recover well from the loss in Iowa and in the days leading up to the primary becomes increasingly negative and shrill. Obama wins again. Mrs. Clinton barely takes second from Edwards. The Clinton campaign goes silent for two days after which it announces a reorganization of the campaign staff with a few notable departures.

The nominees are:

GOP: Fred Thompson. His down-to-earth straight forward approach will have broad appeal. He is a conservative, but he not a Partisan. He comes across as not viewing the world through the lens of Demcrats VS Republicans and after decades of increasingly brutal partisan politics people are ready for something else. I don't have a prediction for a running mate. I do know it will not be one of the current candidates.

Democrats: Hillary Clinton. Hillary will recover from Iowa and New Hampshire and do fairly well in the south. Just before "Super Tuesday" scandal will devastate the Edwards Campaign. The information will, of course, have come from the Clinton campaign. (This will not be reported). Edwards will drop out of the race and focus on avoiding prosecution. Obama will hang on as long as gthe money lasts hoping for the VP slot which he will not get. That will go to Bill Richardson.

The Next President
Fred Thompson. Thompson will continue to cast himself as a candidate of ideas and not as a political partisan. This will prove successful as his opponent is the very embodiment of nasty partisan politics. Mrs. Clinton will continue to campaign based on her husband's experience, which while it helped her in the Democrat primaries, will not play well in the general election due to the fact that large portions of the population don't hold that experience in terribly high regard.

Thompson will serve one very successful, very productive term in the White House. He will not stand for re-election due to personal and primarily health related reasons.

The Red Sox will not win the world series, and will likely not make the playoffs.

The Patriots after capping a perfect season with a Super Bowl blowout will open the next season with a loss.

The Middle East
This is the toughest call to make so I saved it for last.

The upside is, Iraq will hold and begin to stabilize. It will become the solid democratic ally we need in the region. It will start to show growth economically and gain power in the region.

We will be in Iraq for a while yet. Once the Iraqis have taken over the internal security for the entire nation we will remain to provide a deterrent to Iranian and Syrian aggression.

By year's end there will be significant unrest in Iran and it will be clear that the rule of the Mullahs is in jeopardy. There will be growing pressure for freedom and democracy. And it will be bloody.

Pakistan will fall to the terrorists. The Bhuto assassination has made that all but inevitable. When it becomes obvious even to Musharaf he will have one critical choice to make. Use Pakistan's nuclear weapons on terrorist controlled territory, or use them as a bargaining chip with the west to save his own neck. (Literally) When Al Qaeda takes over the country they will be shocked to find that the nukes they so coveted have vanished. They will find themselves sandwiched between a hostile India and a hostile Afghanistan. Iran, preoccupied with it's own internal trouble will be of little help. If the world can muster the will, they can be squeezed out of existence.

The U.S. economy will continue to grow despite federal meddling in the home mortgage market.

Energy prices will trend down for the year.

Humans will continue to produce growing amounts of CO2 which will do little or nothing to the Earth's climate. The hue and cry and predictions of Climate Change doom will continue unabated.

In addition to losing the Presidential nomination, Congressman Ron Paul will lose a primary challenge for his House seat. Supporters will be outraged and there will be virtually no end to the variations of conspiracy theories blaming the loss on corporations or the Bilderbergs or whoever is flying the black helicopters this month.

If I get a small financial windfall this year, I'm buying stock in ALCOA.

Posted by: Stephen Macklin at 10:46 PM | Comments (1) | Add Comment