We don't really elect a Vice President in this country. We basically elect a president and live with whoever was picked to go along for the ride. Sure we let the Vice Presidents have their own debates, but they are really a lot like the everyone wins in little league rules. We let them do it so they feel good about themselves. It's not like we really care.

This time it may be different. This time the choice of Vice Presidential candidates could determine the election.

The Democrat's Dilemma

It's not going to be pretty on the left this year. The number of possible scenarios as they begin their convention is narrowing - and none of them look good for them.

Consider: They arrive at the convention and Obama has a lead in pledged delegates - the delegates awarded in primaries and caucuses. Hillary has enough Super Delegates in her pocket to take the nomination. The "popular vote" is overridden by the party insiders. The already clear divide along both gender and racial lines becomes a chasm that will swallow Mrs. Clinton's chances for the White House. Her only hope at keeping the black vote that she needs to win is to pick Obama as her running mate. A Clinton/Obama ticket has a real chance of winning.

Or, they arrive at the convention and including Super Delegates Obama has enough support to win the nomination - but not if the delegates from Michigan and Florida are counted. It will be a bitter and nasty fight in which Obama finds himself arguing against counting the votes of two large states that the Democrats probably need to carry to win. If Mrs. Clinton wins that fight, we're right back to the scenario above. If Obama wins, and Michigan and Florida don't count, he has angered two important states, and probably hurt his standing with women as well.

He could fix this by putting Hillary on the ticket, but I don't see her accepting. Nor do I see her losing all that gracefully either. Particularly if she is thinking about 2012.

If either candidate wins the nomination outright they still will have to work hard to over come the gender/racial divide they have built up within the party during the primary. Each would need the other on the ticket. But while I see Obama accepting the spot - he still has a political future - I don't see Hillary accepting second chair.

The Republican's Riddle

Likewise a strong VP choice by McCain could go a long way toward defeating the Democrat's nominee. If McCain does the stupid "Maverick" thing and reaches across the aisle for a VP, he will lose conservative support and lose the election.

If he does the smart thing and picks a VP that will help bridge the gap between him and traditional conservatives, he has a better than even chance of winning.

One name I have heard discussed is Condi Rice. A tough, brilliant, conservative, black woman as running mate for McCain would be a nightmare for a Clinton/Obama coalition. I just doubt McCain is going to pick a VP who is going to overshadow him quite so much.

I believe the Democrats can only win this if Mrs. Clinton is the nominee and Obama her VP. Beyond that I think the election is McCain's to lose which he will do if picks a VP that offends conservatives as much or more than he does himself.

Posted by: Stephen Macklin at 07:40 PM | No Comments | Add Comment