iPredict

Seth Goodin, one of my favorite marketing pundits put a out a challenge for predictions about the success of iPhone.

Let's see. iPod, cell phone, address book, Safari, Mail all in one sleek handheld package with some really cool touch screen technology. Nope won't do well at all.

First, I want to remind everyone of my earlier prediction on the evolution of the iPod

I think Apple is moving the iPod toward a stand alone device - untethered from the desktop. Here is how they are going to do it.

They will take the slimmer 30GB drive and put it in the 40GB case. What will they do with all that extra space?

The AirPort Extreme Card is about half the size of a standard business card (smaller than the previous AirPort Card). With AirPort Extreme-enabled Macintosh systems, it's a snap to exchange files or play multiplayer games at data transfer rates of up to 54 megabits per second. AirPort Extreme uses a brand new wireless standard called 802.11g, which is also backward compatible with the 802.11b standard.

Add in the color screen from the iPod Photo and upgrade the software to be able to surf the iTunes Music Store. Hear a song in the bar at the airport that you really like, hop over to the iTunes store and its yours.

This would also make it compatible with AirTunes. Meaning you could walk into your home or office, the iPod would pick up your wireless network and the music plays via your stereo.

And hey, if its got a wireless card and a color screen why not throw in an iPod version of Safari?

Now that would be cool.

So I missed the whole built in cell phone and touch screen and it's not 802.11g, but I still call my original prediction pretty close to the spirit of the device.

So here's my prediction for how the iPhone will perform in the market. When it finally launches (and there are some delays) it will be an explosion. There will be in instant mass of sales that will quickly ease off as supplies run short. The iPhone will continue to be in short supply and Apple will get some bad press about the lack of supply and probably battery life, and some issues with the touch screen.

The supply issues will be resolved with the launch of the second generation iPhone that will have much better battery performance and no touch screen issues. Sales will be steady and heavy though not at wildfire levels. The bottom line is the iPhone will be too pricey for a lot of people's bottom line.

Which of course Apple will address with the iPhone Nano. Lower iPod capacity, smaller screen, and a smaller price. Along the way, look for the introduction of iPhone access to the iTunes Music Store - for those willing to pay a service charge to their provider, on top of the cost of the music, for downloading directly to their phone.

Posted by: Stephen Macklin at 02:56 PM | No Comments | Add Comment