Recently I speculated on whether the Dean vote would go to Edwards or Kerry. The news that Ralph Nader will be running for President as an independent makes the whole thing that much more interesting.

I don't think that Nader will have any great impact on the Democrat's nomination except maybe that some Dean voters might stay home having decided that Nader will get their vote in the general election.

What will be interesting to see is the effect than Nader has on the election - not in terms of how many votes he can get, but in how he effects the Democrat's candidate. In astronomy, one of the common ways an object is detected is by observing it's gravitational effect on objects around it. Nader's roll in spoiling the 2000 election for the Democrats will give him the gravity to tug the nominee to the left or at least limit his move toward the center.

This is the roll Howard Dean played in the early part of the primaries. He staked out a position on the far left - the Democratic wing of the Democratic party. His early success in the polls forced the other candidates to move to the left. Howard's real problems started when he was unwilling/unable to move toward the center when it came time for actual votes that count.

The democrats cannot be happy that there will be a candidate running to the left of their guy. They cannot risk ignoring the Nader effect, and the gravity he gained in the 2000 election will pull the Dem nominee away from the center to avoid losing the far left of the party. This will make it easier for Bush to capture moderate swing votes without having to move so far to the center that he completely alienates the far right of the Republican party.

If Howard Dean truly want's to keep his message and his movement alive, and if he truly blames the Party establishment for his demise, endorsing Nader would be a smart move. At the very least, hinting at it might help him to have a voice at the convention.

I just don't think he should count on Al Gore going along with him.

Posted by: Stephen Macklin at 02:44 AM | Comments (2) | Add Comment