September 28, 2004

Why I Don't Get Worked Up Over Polls

Powerline had a post yesterday highlighting Bush's lead in the Gallup and Washington Post/ABC polls of 8 points and 6 points respectively. Captain's Quarters makes note of CNN's apparent discomfort with reporting Bush's lead in the polls. The Real Clear Politics Poll Average shows Bush with a 6.4 point lead in a a three way race, and 5.3 points in a head to head Bush - Kerry Race.

And yet on Friday I got the following in an email from the Kerry Campaign

There can be no doubt: the momentum is on our side.

George W. Bush's post-convention bounce has evaporated. Five new national polls this week show the race tied, with the difference within the margin of error in every single one of the polls. Three of the polls have the race within one point or less.

And if you think the national polls are looking good, the story in the battleground states is even better. Recent battleground polls from Zogby and American Research Group show John Kerry winning enough electoral votes to take back the White House.

The RCP Electoral Count shows Bush with 291, Kerry with 221 and 26 remaining a toss up.

I'm sure somebody somewhere has taken a poll that shows Ralph Nader leading in 37 states and poised for an upset victory.

Note: My own internal polling shows that I will get 5 votes. (+/- 4)

Posted by: Stephen Macklin at 04:52 AM | No Comments | Add Comment







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